Written By Hoplon

C H A P T E R

N ° 44

Maritime Resilience (Part 1)

 

Space weather impose safety risks and operational challenges to the maritime sector. In previous articles focused on the maritime sector, Hoplon provided an overview of technologies that can get affected by space weather and the system-of-systems designs effect on the maritime sector.

C H A P T E R  N ° 36-38 focused on Maritime Ports, exploring maritime ports as a critical infrastructure (CI), the “system of systems” design, and the anticipated ‘mega disaster’-scenario. It looked at the connection between seaports and the energy sector and space infrastructure, and discussed the notion of cascading risks, focused on the combination of space weather, the ‘system of systems’ design, and maritime ports. Lastly, space weather resilience and its role in overall maritime resilience was consider. C H A P T E R   N ° 39The Ocean, looked closer at the intricate relation between space weather and the ocean, and potential risks and vulnerabilities. Here, direct and indirect effects were explored, looking at things such as the relation between Earth’s atmosphere and the ocean, and how space weather may influence this relation.

C H A P T E R   N ° 40-41 focused onSubmarines and discussed the relation between space weather and submarines, looking closer at things such as the interdependencies between critical infrastructure and the risks and vulnerabilities they pose to submarines. C H A P T E R   N ° 42-43 focused onAutonomous Maritime Vessels, exploring the concept of autonomous maritime vessels and the different classification degrees. Moreover, they examined how space weather impacts the technology onboard autonomous maritime vessels, and subsequently consider the potential consequences these effects may have on both safety and overall operational efficiency at sea.

Today’s article will be part 1 of 2 articles focused on space weather and maritime resilience. Combined the articles look closer at the key reasons for ensuring space weather resilience in the maritime sector and examples of how the effects can be mitigated.

Image Credit: Hurtigruten.

Navigation and communication systems

Navigation and communication systems are vital parts of maritime safety and a disruption to these systems, therefore, increase safety risks within the maritime sector and can impact emergency response systems.

Global Navigation Positioning System (GNSS)

A disruption within the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and the Global Positioning System (GPS) means inaccurate or no help with navigation, route planning, and collision avoidance maneuvers. Intense space weather causing ionospheric disturbances can disrupt satellite signals by scattering and blocking the signals, causing position errors of tens of meters, which is dangerous in narrow or congested waterways and maritime ports. Furthermore, Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) can damage and cause malfunctions in satellites and satellite-based systems, affecting services like satellite communication and Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation that are crucial for port operations and ship tracking.

The Automatic Identification System (AIS)

The Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a crucial system reliant on Very High Frequency (VHF) Radio signals. The Automatic Identification System (AIS) is an automated, shipboard radio broadcasting system that transmits a vessel's identity, position, speed, and course over Very High Frequency Radio to other maritime vessels and shore stations. It is mandatory for large vessels to improve maritime safety, enhance collision avoidance, and assist in tracking traffic, with data often displayed on navigation systems. Different types of solar activity (solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)) can affect the satellites used for Satellite-based Automatic Identification System (S-AIS). A disruption within the communication systems means that operators no longer can use the Automatic Identification System (AIS), effecting situational awareness capabilities and vessel tracking, leading to higher risk of safety and security issues, a lack of operational efficiency, legal and commercial issues, lack of situational awareness, minimized of capabilities within collision avoidance maneuvers, increased issues caused by human error, worse decision-making, unable of early hazard detection, decreased adaptability, and higher dependency on strong communication and teamwork.

High-Frequency (HF) and Very-High Frequency (VHF) radio

High Frequency (HF) and Very High Frequency (VHF) Radio are essential for long-distance communication at sea. However, space weather caused by solar activities like solar flares can cause sudden radio blackouts by ionizing the Earth’s atmosphere, which either blocks or degrades the radio signals used for long-distance communication, causing communication issues between maritime ports and vessels, and vessel-to-vessel communication.

Mitigation measures

The disruption of communication and navigation causes cascading issues within the maritime vessels’ systems and their surrounding environment, leading to safety, environmental, legal and operational issues. Mitigation measures for naval navigation and communication systems against space weather impact focus on creating redundancy, enhancing system hardening, and improving operational procedures to handle ionospheric disturbances, scintillation, and radio blackouts:

Navigation system (GNSS/GPS) mitigation measures include:

  • Redundant navigation systems: Employing non-Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) navigation aids, such as Inertial Navigation Systems (INS), radar parallel-indexing, and traditional celestial navigation to ensure operation when Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is lost or unreliable.

  • Multi-Constellation/Multi-Frequency receivers: Upgrading to receivers that use multiple Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) constellations (GPS, Galileo, GLONASS) and frequencies to increase resilience against ionospheric scintillation and signal disruption.

  • Anti-Jamming/Spoofing technology: Utilizing Controlled Reception Pattern Antennas (CRPA) and Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (RAIM) to enhance signal integrity.

  • Positioning algorithms: Implementing improved algorithms that compute positioning solutions over shorter time intervals (<30 s) to mitigate scintillation effects. 

Communication system (HF/SATCOM) mitigation measures include:

  • Frequency management: Switching to lower High Frequency (HF) radio frequencies during ionospheric depressions and higher frequencies during solar flares to avoid absorption and maintain communication.

  • Alternative communication channels: Utilizing Very High Frequency (VHF) or multiple, diverse satellite communication systems to ensure redundancy if one service is degraded.

  • Operational procedures: Actively monitoring space weather forecasts (e.g., from NOAA) to re-route vessels or delay communication-intensive missions, especially at high latitudes (arctic and Antarctic regions) where effects are severe. 

  • Electronic system hardening (hardware protection)

  • Radiation-hardened components: Using Z-grade shielding or layered aluminum shielding to protect sensitive satellite and navigation electronics from Single-Event Effects (SEEs) caused by high-energy proton radiation.

  • Shielding enclosures: Housing critical electronic components in shielded cabinets (e.g., TEMPEST hardening) to protect against electromagnetic pulses (EMP) and induced currents.

  • Error Detection and Correction (EDAC): Implementing Error Detection and Correction (EDAC) systems to detect and fix Single-Event Upsets (SEUs) in computer memory, crucial for maintaining system stability during severe radiation storms. 

Operational procedures and training:

  • Real-time monitoring: Utilizing space weather forecasting tools and alerts to anticipate disruptions, with recent studies focused on machine learning algorithms to predict the duration of solar flares.

  • Crew drills and training: Regularly conducting drills simulating Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) interference and training crews to recognize signs of jamming or spoofing, such as positional jumps or inconsistent tracking.

  • Data validation: Cross-verifying Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data against other sensors (radar, gyro) to detect anomalies immediately.

Operational safety and economic stability

Collision and grounding

Space weather increases collision and grounding risks through a risk of loss of accurate navigation systems (GNSS, GPS) and communication capabilities - particularly in high-traffic or narrow areas like the Strait of Gibraltar -, increasing the risk of accidents.

Port infrastructure

Severe space weather inducing geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can cause power surges, damaging electrical grids and machinery at ports, consequently halting cargo operations among other things.

Economy

According to the world’s leading specialist insurance and reinsurance market place Lloyd’ of London, a significant solar storm like the 1859 Carrington Event could cause catastrophic damage to the global economy and critical infrastructure. Lloyd has estimated that a major space weather event could result in losses of $2.4 trillion over five years, with impacts felt across global supply chains.

Mitigation measures

Mitigation measure for operational safety and economic stability include:

  • Backup power: Critical systems (like IT and security) need immediate, robust backup generators in case of power grid issues.

  • Operational readiness: Regular drills for power failures ensure teams can manage a shutdown and recovery phase, including protecting equipment from power surges. A space weather forecasting and warning system would be part of this, as it predicts solar events allowing navies to adjust routes, communication strategies, and operational plans.

  • Communication Plans: Establishing secondary communication channels for trucking companies and stakeholders is necessary to manage flow during disruptions. 

  • Redundant systems: Utilizing Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) alongside Global Positioning System (GPS), and having diverse communication methods (like tactical data links and older analog systems).

  • Operational adjustments: Changing operating areas, especially in polar regions where magnetic fields are more susceptible, and preparing for communication outages. 

To be continued…

 

Source

Fiori, Robyn (2022): “Development of space weather services to inform maritime users of space weather events affecting high frequency radio communication”. 44th COSPAR Scientific Assembly. Held 16-24 July, 2022. Volume 44. Online at https://www.cosparathens2022.org/. Abstract PSW.1-0001-22. Pp. 3435.

Grant, Alan; Shaw, George (2012): “The effect of space weather on maritime aids-to-navigation service provision”. Annual of Navigation. Vol. 19(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10367-012-0005-9?urlappend=%3Futm_source%3Dresearchgate

Xue Dabin et al. (2024): “Space weather effects on transportation systems: A review of current understanding and future outlook”. Advancing Earth and Space Science (AGU). Volume 22, Issue 12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004055

Ishii, Mamoru et al. (2024): “Space weather impact on radio communication and navigation”.  ELSEVIER. Advances in Space Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2024.01.043

NOAA (n.d.): “HF Radio communication”. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/hf-radio-communications#:~:text=Space%20weather%20can%20impact%20HF%20radio%20communication,enhanced%20D%2Dlayer%20that%20blocks%20HF%20radio%20communication.

Danish Maritime Authority (n.d.): “AIS data”. https://www.dma.dk/safety-at-sea/navigational-information/ais-data

Hansen, Nicholas (2023): “Situational Awareness for autonomous marine vessels”. Technical University of Denmark (DTU). https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/portalfiles/portal/338331238/PhD_thesis_260_sider_-_76_farvede.pdf

WindWard (n.d.): “Automatic Identification Systems (AIS)”. https://windward.ai/glossary/what-is-automatic-identification-systems-ais/

SKYFI (n.d.): “Vessel tracking: keeping ships on course with modern technology”. https://skyfi.com/en/blog/vessel-tracking-keeping-ships

Maritime Fairtrade (2024): “Navigating safety: importance of maritime vessel tracking systems”. https://maritimefairtrade.org/navigating-safety-importance-of-marine-vessel-tracking-systems/

Maljković, Mislav et al. (2022): ”Situational Awareness from the master point of view and importance of factors that influence it”. ResearchGate. Conference ICTS 2022. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361735423_SITUATIONAL_AWARENES_FROM_THE_MASTER_POINT_OF_VIEW_AND_IMPORTANCE_OF_FACTORS_THAT_INFLUENCE_IT

Lloyd’s (2025): “Lloyd’s highlights risk of extreme space weather as latest scenario reveals potential global economic loss of $2.4trn”. https://www.lloyds.com/insights/media-centre/press-releases/extreme-space-weather-scenario

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